WATSON SAGA FINALE

On January 28, 2021, Deshaun Watson made it official that he was requesting a trade from the Texans, a mere 5 months after signing a $150,000,000 contract, with $110M guaranteed, with a $27M signing bonus. On March 16, 2021, the 1st of 22 civil lawsuits were filed against Watson for sexual misconduct. He also ended up having 9 criminal lawsuits filed against him, so even if the Texans wanted to trade him, which at the time they didn't, they couldn't with all the legal actions pending.

If convicted criminally, Watson could have faced jail time and no team was going to trade for him under those circumstances. Or at least no team was going to pay what GM Nick Caserio was asking for Watson, which was three 1st rounders to start. Now, a team may have gone ahead and rolled the dice if they could have gotten him for a bargain price, but Caserio would not budge.

On March 11, 2022, just 360 days after the 1st case was announced to the public, not even a full year but it seemed like 5 years, Watson's criminal cases were put in front of a Grand Jury, and all 9 of those cases came back with a no bill. That means Watson was free and clear of any criminal charges and would not be facing possible jail. It also means teams didn't have to worry about trading for him and him never getting to play for them because he got hauled off to the slam. So that opened the doors to teams getting serious about making the Texans offers to obtain Watson.

And it didn't take long for teams to start showing their interests. Keep in mind that Watson has a no-trade clause in his contract, so the Texans can't just ship him off to some sorry team, like say Detroit, and let him rot away in obscurity. No, it was going to have to be a team that Watson was OK with going to. But Watson doesn't have total control in this. It still has to be a team that can offer adequate compensation to the Texans because the Texans don't have to trade this guy. So if Watson wants to play football again any time soon, both the Texans and Watson are going to have to help each other out.

Watson is reported saying that he didn't want to go to a team that was rebuilding, that they need to either already be a playoff contender, or on the rise where him being the QB could easily elevate them. For the Texans it needed to be a team, preferably with multiple 1st round picks, or at least a 1st round pick in the top 10. Typically teams with top 10 picks are bad teams, that's why they're picking so high. So it was going to be tricky to find teams that fit both sides.

The Giants are a team with multiple 1st round picks, in fact, they've got 2 picks in the top 7, but the Giants owner is on record saying they were not interested in pursuing Watson. That was before Watson was no billed, but afterwards, no juice from the Giants. And it's unknown if Watson even wanted to go to The Meadowlands. The Eagles have been rumored as a possible destination. They have 3 1st round picks but the earliest is 15th. The Eagles never did end up making a serious run at Deshaun. We know last year that Watson wanted to go to Miami, and possibly Denver. Since then the Dolphins fired their HC Brian Flores, which reports say is the reason Watson wanted to go there. The Broncos took themselves out of the sweepstakes when 3 days before Watson's Grand Jury, they traded for Russell Wilson. This was still an important trade as far as the Texans were concerned though, because of what the Broncos gave up, two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks, a 5th round pick, and TE Noah Fant, who was taken 20th overall in the 2019 draft. That was a significant haul for the Seahawks. If Seattle could pull that haul for a 33 year old QB, who's struggled some the last couple of years, imagine what the price would be for a 26 year old QB, who when he last played was on the verge of becoming one of the elites in the game.

Other teams who needed QBs who might have been interested were the Buccaneers, until Tom Brady unretired. The Commanders (formerly Football Team, formerly Redskins) could have been a player, but they traded for Colts QB Carson Wentz. Of course that left the Colts needing a QB but there is no way the Texans were trading Watson to a team within the division and have to face him twice a year for the next decade or so. Ben Roethlisberger retired but the Steelers, where Brian Flores was now an assistant coach, never showed any interest. And the Seahawks, who traded Wilson, never showed interest, or Watson wasn't interested in, or both.

The teams that did show serious interests right from the get go were the Panthers and the Saints. Not long after, the Browns and the Falcons entered into the mix. It was reported that all 4 of those teams were teams that Watson would waive his no-trade clause for. All 4 teams set up meetings with Watson, but before they were allowed to do so, they had to submit trade proposals to the Texans that the Texans had to approve of and thought they could work with. This was done to keep from wasting everyone's time. No sense in the Texans negotiating with a team if Watson wasn't OK with going there, and no sense letting teams talk to Watson if the Texans felt they weren't getting back the compensation they were seeking.

The Saints reportedly were coming pretty hard after Watson, despite being in cap hell and knowing Watson would add another $35M to their cap. The big problem there for the Texans though was that the Saints earliest pick in the draft was at 18. And if the Texans were going to secure future 1sts from the Saints, which the Texans went into this wanting at least 3 firsts, with Watson going to New Orleans, he'd likely have them in the playoffs immediately, so those future picks would be in the 20's. Not ideal.

The Carolina Panthers seemed to be even more aggressive in trying to obtain Watson. So much so, the owner of the Panthers flew to Houston to meet with Watson to try and woo him. South Carolina (Clemson) is where Watson played his college ball and won a national championship. So there was a connection there. What the Panthers had to offer the Texans started with the 6th pick of the draft, which of the 4 teams involved, was the highest pick the Texans could get.

The Browns came hard after Watson while Baker Mayfield was going "hey, I'm standing right here!". The Browns may have had some better players to offer back, and no, the Texans weren't interested in Baker, but like the Saints, their 1st round pick was mid round (13th), and Watson could immediately make them playoff contenders where future picks would be in the 20's. Again, not ideal.

According to reports, the 1st team out of the sweepstakes was the Browns. And because of their pursuit of Watson, Baker Mayfield felt disrespected and has now requested to be traded. The Panthers were the next team out. They're rolling with Sam Darnold at the moment so it doesn't really matter if they hurt his feelings. Haha! Seriously though, Sam Darnold. So that left the Saints and the Falcons.

The Falcons were a little more intriguing. First of all, Watson was born in the Atlanta area (Gainesville, GA), and was even a ball boy for the Falcons in his youth, and two, the Falcons have the 8th pick in the draft. Yes, future picks could still end up higher, but to get a top 10 pick, you can work with that. Atlanta may be a little further away from being competitive, but Watson still OK'd that team. The problem with Atlanta is that they had Matt Ryan, along with his huge cap hit ($40M). They couldn't take on Watson until they did something with Ryan. Ryan was also due to get an $8M bonus that kicked in at midnight Friday, March 18th. That would up his cap hit to $48M.

By Thursday, March 17th, Twitter is going crazy with reports just flying all over the place. Hard to tell what was real or not. Late Thursday there was a report that the Falcons had pushed back the date for which Ryan's bonus would kick in, until Tuesday. If this report were true, it could only mean one thing. That Watson had decided on the Falcons and the Falcons needed time to try and put together a trade to deal Ryan.

Are you with me so far?

Friday afternoon, March 18, Twitter starts blowing up again. A decision has been announced. Deshaun Watson has informed the Texans that he will waive his no-trade clause to go to the Atlanta CLEVELAND BROWNS!!! Wait, what??!! The Browns were the 1st team out of the running. I guess they jumped back in when they told Watson they'd restructure his contract to make him the highest paid QB in NFL history. A 5 year, $230,000,000 deal, FULLY GUARANTEED!!!! That's $80,000,000 more than the total contract he signed with the Texans, which he never played a down for, and $120,000,000 more guaranteed. Holy hell!!!! So much for being worried about taking on an alleged sexual deviant who likes to have fingers put in oiled up places. Now, Aaron Rodgers just signed a 4 year, $200M contract ($50M per year) but only $153M guaranteed. Patrick Mahomes has a 10 year, $450M contract, but only $63M is guaranteed. Deshaun Watson, who has 1 playoff win in his career, is getting $230,000,000 guaranteed.

And all the while Baker is going, "Guys! Still right here."

So now that that's all taken care of, it's time for Caserio to start doing some work, because this isn't a done deal. The Browns and Texans still have to come to an agreement on a trade, meaning, what are the Browns giving the Texans to make this happen? Let's revisit what the Seahawks got for Russell Wilson, who is 7 years older than Watson. Seattle got two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks, a 5th round pick, and TE Noah Fant, a 1st rounder, 20th overall, in the 2019 draft. One of those 1st round picks will be #9 overall in the upcoming draft in April. The Broncos, where Wilson was traded to, are projected to be in the toughest division in football with all of the additions the other 3 teams (Vegas, KC and the Chargers) have already made, and the fact each one of those teams has either a top tier QB, or one on the cusp of reaching that tier (Derek Carr). So the Broncos could play decent football with Wilson at the helm and still end up last in the division, which means those future 1sts will be better. The 2nds will be higher picks as well.

What the Texans got back in return for Watson was THREE 1st round picks (2022, 2023 & 2024), ZERO 2nd round picks, ONE 3rd round pick (NEXT YEAR), and the Texans swapped a 5th round pick for a Browns 4th round pick in 2024, and NO PLAYERS COMING BACK. WHAT IN THE FREAKING HELL??!!!

The 3 first round picks sound like a lot on the surface, but let's break it down. First of all, of all those picks, only ONE is this year. That would be the first of the three 1st round picks, #13 overall in this year's draft. With the Browns, who just missed the playoffs this past season, likely to become a serious playoff contender with Watson at the helm, those 1st round picks in 2023 and 2024 are likely to be in the 20's. In other words, closer to the 2nd round than they are the top 10. That affects the other picks as well. The 3rd in 2023 will likely be closer to a 4th round pick if the Browns are a playoff team, and the 4th in 2024 will likely be closer to a 5th. Now, this is not as bad as it might have been under Bill O'Brien, but that was a pretty disappointing haul by Nick Caserio.

Oh well, I haven't been impressed with a whole lot of what Caserio has done in his 1st 14 months on the job. Throwing away late round picks on players he could have gotten off the waiver wire for nothing, then cutting them in camp or before. The 2 botched HC searches. Throwing away 5 picks in last year's draft to move up to draft 2 players who contributed very little. I mean, this was a chance for Caserio to redeem himself, and I think it was a big fail. Caserio insisted on 3 first rounders from the get go, and he did get that, but I figured that was a starting point. And again, those 1st rounders are likely to be late 1sts at best, except for #13 this year, of course.

But, the Texans have finally washed their hands of this year+ long ordeal, and maybe that's what Caserio was instructed to do by the 2 guys over his head, Jack and Cal. And now comes the even harder part where we have to trust that Caserio can turn those picks into something. Was not impressed with his limited draft last year. Let's see what he can do with a more loaded draft as the Texans now have 5 picks in the top 80, including two 1st rounders at #3 (their own) and #13 (from Cleveland).

Only getting ONE pick from the Browns this year, it's still going to take some time to pry this ship off the seafloor.