As we inch ever closer to the 2022 NFL Draft (next Thursday), our Houston Texans prepare to participate in the 1st round for the 1st time since 2019, and just the 2nd time in the last 5 drafts. And not only will they have a 1st round pick, for the 1st time in franchise history they will start the draft with TWO 1st round picks.
Let's start on the o-line. The top tackles in this year's draft, and who could be sitting there for the Texans at #3, are Alabama T Evan Neal and North Carolina State T Ikem Ekwonu. Neal checks in at 6'7", 350 lbs. He started all 13 games for the Tide at guard in his freshman year, where he made the SEC All Freshman team. The following year Neal was moved to right tackle, and last year he jumped over to left tackle, where he made 1st Team All SEC. This is important because it gives the Texans some options of where to play Neal with Laremy Tunsil holding down LT for at least another year, and where they decide to play Tytus Howard. If they go with Howard at RT, Neal can move in to play guard. If Howard is the one playing G, Neal can go to RT. Eventually, Neal would take over for Tunsil in 2023 when he is expected to either be traded or become a cap casualty.
Those are the 2 o-linemen the Texans could have a shot at at #3. There's a couple of options on the defensive side as well. Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson and Georgia DE Travon Walker seem to be the consensus top 2 from draft "experts". The 6'6", 265 lb. Hutchinson was the Heisman Trophy runner-up last season when he racked up 14 sacks, and 16½ tackles for loss for the Wolverines, in a season coming off a leg fracture the year before. It's somewhat of a mystery as to why Walker is rated so high. The 6'5", 275 pounder has just 9½ sacks and 13 tackles for loss, in his entire 3 year collegiate career. That's 4½ fewer sacks and 3½ fewer tackles for loss than Hutchinson had just last year alone. But there's a lot of mocks out there that have Walker going #1 to the Jaguars, and Texans HC Lovie Smith has shown some interest in him as well.
If the Texans don't address either line at #3, they could go CB, another position they desperately need help at. The option there would likely be Cincinnati CB Ahmed "Sauce" Gardner. Definitely one of the best at his position as Gardner didn't allow a single TD against him in his 3 year career with the Bearcats.
At #13, a lot, of course, will depend on what they do with the #3 pick. If they go edge rusher at 3, then OT would likely be the priority at 13. Or if they go T at 3, then edge rusher at 13 might be the play. A couple of tackles that could be there at 13 are Charles Cross, 2 year starter out of Mississippi State, and Northern Iowa T Trevor Penning, a local kid from the Clear Lake area. If the Texans decide to go the other way, OL first, then DL, they could be looking at guys like Purdue edge rusher George Karlaftis and Georgia DT Devonte Wyatt. The Texans could also look at secondary at 13 as well with LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr, Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton and Washington CB Trent McDuffie.
If the Texans do like any of these QBs this year, Liberty QB Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh, Matt Corral - Ole Miss, and Desmond Ridder - Cincinnati, are top of this year's class. I'd be really, really hesitant to burn a 1st on a QB from a small school (Willis-Liberty). Corral, playing in the SEC, has faced the toughest competition. The 3 year starter had 49 TD, 19 INT his last 2 seasons, 20/5 last year. Pickett had 42 TDs last season with just 7 INT, and Ridder, a 4 year starter, had a 30/8 TD/INT ratio in leading the non-power 5 Bearcats to the College Football Playoffs last year.
For having the 3rd worst record in the NFL last year, the Texans will be making a selection at #3 overall, after Jacksonville (#1), and Detroit (#2), make their picks. The Texans will also have the 13th overall pick with the trade they made to send Deshaun Watson to Cleveland. Interesting that it was the Browns who the Texans traded a 1st round pick for, that ended up being the #4 pick in 2018, to move up to #12 in 2017 to take Watson in the 1st place.
With the Texans finally having a full arsenal of picks, many consider now as the starting point in the Texans rebuild that 2nd year GM Nick Caserio is undertaking. It's a Texans team with a ton of needs at a ton of positions, and the Texans find themselves with 5 picks out of the 1st 80 (two 1st round, a 2nd rounder, and two 3rd round picks) to try and start filling those needs.
With the 2 picks in the first 13, we'll focus on some on the names that have the potential to become Texans in the next few days.
IN MY OPINION, the rebuild needs to start in the trenches, the offensive and defensive lines. Those won't be flashy, splashy picks, but a lot of those types of players will be selected in the first 10-15 picks or so. At #3 the Texans will find themselves with a chance to grab a player for the o-line or a desperately needed pass rusher on the d-line, regardless of who the Jaguars and Lions select.
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| Evan Neal - Alabama |
Let's start on the o-line. The top tackles in this year's draft, and who could be sitting there for the Texans at #3, are Alabama T Evan Neal and North Carolina State T Ikem Ekwonu. Neal checks in at 6'7", 350 lbs. He started all 13 games for the Tide at guard in his freshman year, where he made the SEC All Freshman team. The following year Neal was moved to right tackle, and last year he jumped over to left tackle, where he made 1st Team All SEC. This is important because it gives the Texans some options of where to play Neal with Laremy Tunsil holding down LT for at least another year, and where they decide to play Tytus Howard. If they go with Howard at RT, Neal can move in to play guard. If Howard is the one playing G, Neal can go to RT. Eventually, Neal would take over for Tunsil in 2023 when he is expected to either be traded or become a cap casualty.
Ikem, or Ickey Ekwonu, also has experience at guard, playing 4 games there in 2020, but the bulk of his collegiate career has been spent at LT. If the Texans were to select Ekwonu at #3, there would be a little less flexibility with what they could do with Ekwonu. As far as I know, Ekwonu has never played RT, so the Texans would either have to take their chances putting him on the right side, or moving him inside to guard for a season where he does have experience, but only 4 games of it. And again, he'd be your LT in 2023 when they move on from Tunsil.
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| Aiden Hutchinson - Michigan |
Those are the 2 o-linemen the Texans could have a shot at at #3. There's a couple of options on the defensive side as well. Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson and Georgia DE Travon Walker seem to be the consensus top 2 from draft "experts". The 6'6", 265 lb. Hutchinson was the Heisman Trophy runner-up last season when he racked up 14 sacks, and 16½ tackles for loss for the Wolverines, in a season coming off a leg fracture the year before. It's somewhat of a mystery as to why Walker is rated so high. The 6'5", 275 pounder has just 9½ sacks and 13 tackles for loss, in his entire 3 year collegiate career. That's 4½ fewer sacks and 3½ fewer tackles for loss than Hutchinson had just last year alone. But there's a lot of mocks out there that have Walker going #1 to the Jaguars, and Texans HC Lovie Smith has shown some interest in him as well.
One name up among the top prospects, but has seemed to have fallen off some is Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux. Thibodeaux had just 7 sacks for the Ducks last year, and has just 19 in his 3 year collegiate career.
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| Sauce Gardner-Cincinnati |
If the Texans don't address either line at #3, they could go CB, another position they desperately need help at. The option there would likely be Cincinnati CB Ahmed "Sauce" Gardner. Definitely one of the best at his position as Gardner didn't allow a single TD against him in his 3 year career with the Bearcats.
So those are some of the names being kicked around for the Texans at #3, should they stay there, that is. There's a decent possibility the Texans could trade out of the 3 hole and gather even more picks. Eventually though, those picks need to turn into players.
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| Devonte Wyatt - Georgia |
At #13, a lot, of course, will depend on what they do with the #3 pick. If they go edge rusher at 3, then OT would likely be the priority at 13. Or if they go T at 3, then edge rusher at 13 might be the play. A couple of tackles that could be there at 13 are Charles Cross, 2 year starter out of Mississippi State, and Northern Iowa T Trevor Penning, a local kid from the Clear Lake area. If the Texans decide to go the other way, OL first, then DL, they could be looking at guys like Purdue edge rusher George Karlaftis and Georgia DT Devonte Wyatt. The Texans could also look at secondary at 13 as well with LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr, Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton and Washington CB Trent McDuffie.
The Texans could look to possibly add an offensive playmaker at 13 as well. WRs Drake London - USC, Treylon Burks - Arkansas, Jameson Williams - Alabama, and Chris Olave - Ohio State are some options there.
I don't expect the Texans to be looking at QB, but you never know. In my opinion, I wouldn't fire a 1st rounder at a QB this year as the "experts" believe this is a poor QB draft, and that next year's class will be better. Of course, the "experts" had Trevor Lawrence as the once in a lifetime generational, can't miss pick last year and it's still way too early to judge, but the Texans 3rd round rookie Davis Mills had a much better year than he did. Last year's #2 pick, Zach Wilson was even worse. And let's not forget guys like Mitchell Trubisky, #2 overall in 2017, Jared Goff, #1 overall in 2016, and Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, #1 and #2 overall respectively in 2015. So the "experts" can get it just as wrong as anybody.
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| Desmond Ridder - Cincinnati |
If the Texans do like any of these QBs this year, Liberty QB Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh, Matt Corral - Ole Miss, and Desmond Ridder - Cincinnati, are top of this year's class. I'd be really, really hesitant to burn a 1st on a QB from a small school (Willis-Liberty). Corral, playing in the SEC, has faced the toughest competition. The 3 year starter had 49 TD, 19 INT his last 2 seasons, 20/5 last year. Pickett had 42 TDs last season with just 7 INT, and Ridder, a 4 year starter, had a 30/8 TD/INT ratio in leading the non-power 5 Bearcats to the College Football Playoffs last year.
So I believe what the Texans are looking at with their 2 picks in the 1st round, should they stay at 3 and 13, are the guys mentioned above, at those positions. OL, Edge/DL, CB/DB. I think there's a small chance a WR is taken at 13, better odds if they trade back, and I think there's a very low probability a QB is taken at all, though I wouldn't put it past them to waste a pick on one. I think they ride with Mills this year and address QB, if need be, next year when there should be better options.
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