I'll preface this by saying, draft grades given by me, or anyone else for that matter, don't mean squat. But like everyone who puts out a mock draft to generate conversation, it's the same for those giving out grades. Just a topic of conversation.
I would also like to point out, that my grades aren't necessarily geared towards the players themselves, as none of them have taken a single NFL snap. My initial draft grade leans more towards execution of the draft and value. So this is basically a grade for GM Nick Caserio and how he navigated the draft.
2021 was a miserable season for the Texans, winning just 4 games, out of 17. That did, however, earn them the rights to the 3rd overall pick in the draft. When you suffer through a season like that where you end up with a pick in the top of the draft, you'd like that pick to be for a player who can make a difference to your football team. Though nothing is guaranteed, you want players that don't have a lot of risk that high in the draft. You want more of a sure thing. I am not convinced the Texans did that with their #3 overall pick.
Derek Stingley was a stud for LSU in 2019. He was an All-American, All-Freshman ballhawk with 6 INT for the Tigers in '19, the year they went undefeated and won the national championship with Joe Burrow at QB. That was 3 seasons ago. That's a long time. Since then, the tape on Stingley hasn't been all that great. 2020 was, of course, the Covid season where the season was shortened, and in 2021, Stingley missed all but 3 games due to a Lisfranc injury in his foot. So Stingley has only played 10 games since that 2019 season. As I've said, the tape for 2020 and 2021 is nowhere near what it was in 2019 and Stingley has 0 INT since that season.
So the Texans suffer through what they did last year, going 4-13, get the #3 overall pick, and they use that pick, not only on a guy coming off a significant foot injury, but who hasn't shown much since 2019, 3 seasons ago. That doesn't sound like much of a sure thing, especially when you consider there were players like that available for the Texans to take that they passed on. And some would argue Stingley wasn't even the best CB on the board. Now if the Texans liked him better than those guys, so be it, but this is where their evaluation and decision gets graded.
So I believe the Texans missed the boat at #3. A lot less shine on that pick considering what they went through to get there and the talent that was available to them. Not saying that Stingley won't be a great player, just that it's a riskier pick considering what they went through to be in that position.
With their next pick I believe they at least got back into the boat. Originally the 13th pick, the one they got from Cleveland for Deshaun Watson, Caserio flipped it to the Eagles, landing in their spot at #15, and picking up a 4th and two 5ths to go with it. Those picks will eventually be a factor in this grade.
So with the 15th pick they addressed what I think they should have with the #3 pick, the trenches. In this case, the o-line. Even though some may say it's still a little too high to draft a guard, the Texans could because they do still have Laremy Tunsil. So the local kid, Kenyon Green is the selection here. A solid lineman, bulldozer in the run game, something the Texans haven't had on the interior for a while now. They definitely gave this pick more value getting him at 15 instead of 13, plus all the extra picks they got. Job well done. That might be the first time I could say that and mean it in the Caserio era.
Day 2 saw Caserio moving up twice, using 2 of the 3 picks he got from the Eagles to move back from #13 to #15 on Day 1. The Texans also fail to address a pass rusher on Day 2. Instead, they pick up their 2nd DB, using their own pick at #37 to draft Baylor DB Jalen Pitre. Yeah, the Texans do need to overhaul their secondary, but without a pass rush it's not going to matter much who you have back there. Pitre likely plays safety and should he see starter snaps, but it would give the Texans 2 rookies starting in the secondary with Stingley back there as well. Could be a bumpy ride back there for a while. Pitre is a bit undersized and struggles covering in space, but has a high football IQ, plays the run well and can knife through traffic to get to the ball.
I believe the Texans were looking at RB with this pick, possibly Breece Hall, but the Jets jumped 1 spot in front of them to take Hall.
Next, Caserio started making some moves. He gets back into the 2nd round, but to do so he has to give up 3 picks, #68, their 4th pick in the 3rd round, which would have been their next pick after Pitre, #108, their 3rd pick in the 4th round, and pick #124, one of the ones they got from Philly on Day 1, to move up to the 12th pick of the 2nd round (#44), where they take Alabama WR John Metchie. This is Caserio's 2nd draft with the Texans, and in both drafts he's now given up a combined 6 picks to draft 2 WRs. Last year he gave away 3 picks to move up and take Nico Collins in the 3rd.
Metchie put up some pretty good numbers playing 2nd fiddle to some stud WRs at Alabama the last 2 years, including a 96 catch, 1,142 yard, 8 TD season last year, and I think he's a better prospect than I thought Collins was last year. There seemed to be a run on WRs at the time, so maybe it was warranted to move up in this instance. I'm not buying that was the case last year. Metchie is also coming off an ACL tear, so yet another injury flag on a Texans draft pick.
The next pick, however, left you scratching your head a little. The Texans had the #80 pick remaining for Day 2, but Caserio calls the Broncos up, flips 3rds with them and gives up #162, another pick they got from Philly on Day 1, just to move up 5 spots to #75, where they take Alabama LB Christian Harris. Harris may struggle to get on the field in 2022, never mind being a starter. And starters are the goal when you're drafting in the 1st 3 rounds. But then Caserio gave up 3 picks last year to move up twice to draft LB Garrett Wallow, and Wallow barely saw the field last year. So I'm not sure of the thought process here. Giving up a mid 5th round pick is not that big of a deal, but considering no teams drafted a LB with the next 5 picks, it's possible that Harris still would have been there at 80. I think this is just a case of Caserio hating late round picks.
The Texans finally address RB in the 4th and they go with underused Dameon Pierce from Florida. Pierce played 4 years with the Gators and never had a 1,000 yard season. In fact, the 547 yards he had last year are his career high. Pierce has also never had a 100 yard game. Of course it's kinda hard to do that when you've carried the ball more than 10 times in a game just 9 times. The Texans also take Pierce, who had 1,077 yards his last TWO seasons, ahead of guys like Michigan RB Hassan Haskins (1,327 yards, 20 TD last year alone), and Texas A&M RB Isaiah Spiller (1,011 yards last year), among a couple of others.
The Texans used the last of the 3 picks they got from the Eagles in the 1st round, to move up from #166 to #150. They also had to give up their last pick of the draft (#207) to make it work. The Chicago Bears are the team that took that deal. And with that pick the Texans take the only d-lineman they drafted. A 5th rounder, Thomas Booker, from Stanford. Caserio moved up in the 5th round last year too, twice in fact, to draft Garrett Wallow, who barely saw the field last year. I'm not sure Booker sees a whole lot of snaps in 2022 either, but Caserio seems to be making a habit of giving away picks to move up in the 5th to get guys who don't contribute much.
The Texans stay put with their final 2 picks, taking their obligatory TE, Teagan Quitoriano, from Oregon St, the 5th TE drafted by the Texans in the last 5 drafts, and what seems like a throw him a bone because he's a local kid, RT Austin Deculus, who wasn't projected to be drafted by some.
Overall, I'm not convinced they got the best player on the board at #3. For me, that took them getting a grade of "A" off the board. Not to mention the risk of taking a player coming off a significant foot injury there. They'd really have to do something special to get back in "A" territory. They gave it the old college try when they traded back from #13 to #15 and picked up 3 extra picks, but then they packaged all 3 of those picks to move up when they probably could have stayed put for at least one of those picks (Harris), and probably didn't need to move up in the 5th to get Booker either. Metchie, who they gave up 3 picks to move up to get, is another player coming off of injury (ACL). For the Pierce selection, I thought there were 2 or 3 players better suited at the RB position than Pierce. Everything else is likely to just be pretty much roster filler, yet the Texans still give away picks to move up to get Booker in the 5th.
Though there were needs all over this team at every position, they never addressed a primary need of a pass rusher. It appears they're hoping Jonathan Greenard, who had a career high 8 sacks last year, improves on that. Jacob Martin is no longer around, and they brought in Rams backup Ogbo Okoronkwo to fill his spot. Just not seeing where the pass rush is coming from. That will make things that much harder for the secondary guys (Stingley and Pitre) to have success.
Positives? Though I think Stingley was a gamble they shouldn't have taken, he could be a very good player for years to come. That would definitely shoot the grade up in the future. And though they had to pass on guys like Ekwonu and Neal to take Stingley, I think adding Green inside is something that's been way overdue for this franchise. Pitre could be a solid replacement for Justin Reid. If Metchie is healthy, he could be a solid compliment to Brandin Cooks and a nice quick outlet for QB Davis Mills. Harris' speed intrigues me, just not sure he can crack the starting rotation.
Negatives? Well, there's the lack of adding a pass rusher. There's the injury risk of taking Stingley at the highly valuable position at #3 overall and passing on studs to do so. There's giving away 3 picks to move up to get a secondary WR coming off an ACL, and giving away 3 more picks to move up 5 spots to get a LB who is a coin toss to see significant snaps. There's taking a RB who probably wasn't the best RB still on the board. And there's moving up in the 5th round for the 2nd year in a row to get a guy who probably won't see many snaps, just like the guy they moved up in the 5th for last year.
All of that information is fed into my computer and it spits out a 2022 Texans Draft grade of:
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