Once again a disclaimer for an article like this. Draft grades, particularly those given before the players have taken a single snap, are nothing more than conversation pieces. And most of the draft grades you'll see try to actually grade those players who have never taken a single snap. I try to stay away from grading the player and instead try to grade value and execution of the draft by the GM/team. With that out of the way, here's what I think of the Texans and GM Nick Caserio's 2023 draft.
Apparently the McNair family wasn't going to let Mulugheta screw them out of taking a QB, so with the #2 pick in the draft, they take Mulugheta client, C.J. Stroud from Ohio State. Most prognosticators had Stroud as the 2nd rated QB in the draft behind Young, but unlike Young, Stroud isn't sub 6' and sub 200 lbs. In 2 full seasons in Columbus, Stroud threw over 40 TD passes in both seasons with just 6 INT in each. Stroud was not only very accurate with a 69.3% overall completion percentage, but he had a 50% completion percentage on throws of 20 yards or more, which was one of the best in the country. Not a lot of flaws to Stroud's game other than dealing with pressure. With only 25 sacks in 2 seasons, he didn't have to deal with a lot of pressure with the Buckeyes, but when he did the results were not very promising. That will be his biggest hurdle in the NFL because he will get pressured on Sundays. If he can get past that, I think the sky's the limit for Stroud. So even though Stroud may have not been the Texans 1st choice, they do finally get a QB that they've been looking for since the departure of Watson. Then again, Stroud may have actually been the Texans 1st choice. They were so tight lipped this draft season, nobody knew who they had rated better.
And with that #3 pick the Texans take Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. Alabama is, of course, HC DeMeco Ryans' alma mater. Anderson was considered by many to be the top rated player in the entire draft. Anderson had 34½ career sacks for the Crimson Tide, 2nd most in Alabama history behind LB Derrick Thomas, who went on to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Anderson is a 2 time SEC Defensive Player of the Year, and like QB, something the Texans have been desperate for for a while, Anderson gives the Texans a serious pass rusher for which they've also been desperate for for a while.
Already possibly the greatest draft in Texans history, they still had 10 picks remaining, but none in the 2nd round. There's no way they're making all 10 picks. And on Day 2 Caserio is on the phones looking to give some of those picks away. He strikes up a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles to move into the backend of the 2nd, from the front end of the 3rd. The Texans give Philly a 6th (#188) and a 7th (#230), just to move up 3 spots from #65 to #62. And with that they grab C/G Juice Scruggs from Penn State. A lot of the "experts" were all over the map on Scruggs. Most had a 3rd to 4th round grade on him and here the Texans are moving up into the 2nd to get him. He was the 4th rated center in the draft, but the 3rd rated C was still on the board and didn't end up being drafted until the end of the 3rd round. So this was kind of a questionable move by Caserio. Did he really have to give up 2 picks to move up 3 spots? If that's their guy then so be it, go get him if you're nervous he's going to get taken. This one may have been a reach though.
The Texans next pick was slated at #73, but Caserio can't seem to stay in one place. He's on the phone again, this time with the Rams. The Texans send LA their 5th round pick (#161) that they got from the Brandin Cooks trade to the Cowboys, but the Texans get back the Rams 6th round pick at #191, all to move up 4 spots from #73 to #69. And with the 6th pick of the 3rd round, #69 overall, the Texans make their 3rd selection on the offensive side of the ball with University of Houston WR Nathaniel "Tank" Dell. Dell had 29 receiving TDs for the Coogs the last 2 seasons, including a nations best 17 last year. Dell's 1,398 yards also led the nation last year and his 109 receptions were 2nd most.
It's the 4th round though where I think Caserio let his foot off the gas pedal a little after such a great start, and kind of coasted through the rest of the draft. As the 4th round started, the Texans had the 2nd and 3rd picks (#104 & #105) to start day 3. They didn't keep either. They traded #104 to the Raiders in their first move back in the draft, to go to #109. Vegas also gave the Texans pick number #174 in the deal. Pick #105, that the Texans got back from Arizona in the Will Anderson deal, was traded to the Eagles for a 3rd round pick next year. So the Texans next pick was where the Raiders were at #109 where they take TCU edge rusher Dylan Horton, who had 18 sacks in his 5 year collegiate career with 10½ of those coming last year, and 4 of those coming in 1 game. Horton has some good moves in his repertoire and has a high motor, but he'll definitely need some coaching up. But, since this is about Caserio's execution of the draft and not so much about the player who hasn't taken an NFL snap, moving back and getting an extra pick is always a plus.
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That's where the moving back in the draft and getting extra picks ended. For their next selection, the LA Rams were answering their phone again and Caserio offers them pick #259, which was the last pick of the draft, aka Mr. Irrelevant, to move up 7 spots from #174 to #167, and the Rams said yes. To move up 7 spots in the 5th round and all it costs is the very last pick of the draft, wasn't a bad move at all. The Texans use that pick to go back to DeMeco's alma mater and get Alabama LB Henry To'oTo'o. To'oTo'o led the Tide in tackles in 2 years ago even though he's not considered a big hitter and lacks speed to keep runners from turning the corners. This pick kinda just feels like an Alabama reunion, and maybe they could have gotten a better prospect, but again, all it costs was the very last pick of the draft.
Next up was the Texans sitting still at #201 and taking C/G Jarrett Patterson out of Notre Dame. This is the 6th round now. Patterson started 34 games for the Irish at C from 2019-2021, with a foot injury holding him to 8 games in 2020. He started 13 games the following year. Last season, the Irish moved him to LG. There's a report saying that Patterson didn't allow a single sack for 1,609 straight pass blocking situations. Probably a backup G and C to start his career for the Texans, but might give Juice Scruggs some competition for a starting role.
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The Texans make a selection 4 picks later at #205 when they trade up with the Buffalo Bills. This one Caserio gave up pick #230, a pick that was actually a trade back with the Eagles, but they give it away along with a 6th round pick next year, to move up to #205 to take Iowa State WR Xavier Hutchinson. Man, Caserio really likes giving away picks to move up and get WRs. In his 1st draft he gave up 3 picks to get Nico Collins. Last year he gave up 3 picks to get John Metchie. And now 2 picks this year to move up and get Hutchinson, in the 6th round. At least Metchie and Collins were 2nd and 3rd rounders respectively. This is the 6th round! Anyhoo, Hutchinson has led the Big 12 for 3 straight seasons in receptions, and led the conference in yards this past season. Of Hutchinson's 6 TD catches last year only 1 came in conference play. It will be tough for him to make an impact with a Texans WR room that's getting pretty full. Not sure WR was the way to go here.
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And finally, we reach the end. Pick #248, the 12th from last pick in the draft. The pick the Texans got from the Eagles for giving them their spot at #191. And the Texans final draft pick in 2023 is Pittsburgh safety Brandon Hill. The Panthers played in the Sun Bowl this past December and Hill decided to opt out of that game so that he could prepare for the draft where ended up being taken in the 7th freaking round, 12th from the very last pick. Opting out of bowl games is becoming more of a thing for players that are expected to go high in the draft, where they fear an injury in a meaningless bowl game could hurt their draft status, thus costing them significant money. To be fair, Hill was a projected 5th rounder, but still, a backend of the draft guy opting out? What is the world coming to?
It got of to a blazing start for the Texans despite what many believed had the QB they were thought to have the most interest in, go to the Carolina Panthers with the 1st pick. That QB being Bryce Young. That left the Texans in a precarious situation where if they still wanted a QB, which they desperately needed, they were probably going to have to deal with agent David Mulugheta, the same guy who has Deshaun Watson as a client and had just screwed over the Texans to the tune of about $37M, of passing on QB at #2, and/or maybe trying to find a diamond in the rough later in the draft. It's already hard enough to hit on a QB at the top of the draft. It's even harder later on.
Apparently the McNair family wasn't going to let Mulugheta screw them out of taking a QB, so with the #2 pick in the draft, they take Mulugheta client, C.J. Stroud from Ohio State. Most prognosticators had Stroud as the 2nd rated QB in the draft behind Young, but unlike Young, Stroud isn't sub 6' and sub 200 lbs. In 2 full seasons in Columbus, Stroud threw over 40 TD passes in both seasons with just 6 INT in each. Stroud was not only very accurate with a 69.3% overall completion percentage, but he had a 50% completion percentage on throws of 20 yards or more, which was one of the best in the country. Not a lot of flaws to Stroud's game other than dealing with pressure. With only 25 sacks in 2 seasons, he didn't have to deal with a lot of pressure with the Buckeyes, but when he did the results were not very promising. That will be his biggest hurdle in the NFL because he will get pressured on Sundays. If he can get past that, I think the sky's the limit for Stroud. So even though Stroud may have not been the Texans 1st choice, they do finally get a QB that they've been looking for since the departure of Watson. Then again, Stroud may have actually been the Texans 1st choice. They were so tight lipped this draft season, nobody knew who they had rated better.
The Texans started the draft with 2 first round picks, #2, their own for finishing with the 2nd worst record in the NFL last year, and #12 from the Browns for Watson. They still make 2 first round picks, but their 2nd one comes on the very next pick after Stroud. Caserio calls up the Cardinals, who were at #3, gave them their 2nd round pick at #33 and one of the 2 first round picks they have next year, along with swapping a 3rd round pick next year with the Cardinals 4th round pick (#105) this year, to move up from #12 to #3. They become the 3rd team in the modern draft era (1967) to have back-to-back picks within the first 3 picks of the draft.
And with that #3 pick the Texans take Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. Alabama is, of course, HC DeMeco Ryans' alma mater. Anderson was considered by many to be the top rated player in the entire draft. Anderson had 34½ career sacks for the Crimson Tide, 2nd most in Alabama history behind LB Derrick Thomas, who went on to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Anderson is a 2 time SEC Defensive Player of the Year, and like QB, something the Texans have been desperate for for a while, Anderson gives the Texans a serious pass rusher for which they've also been desperate for for a while.
So I think it's safe to say the Texans stole the show on Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft, coming out swinging for the fences and possibly hitting 2 home runs in picking up 2 of the highest rated players in the draft, in back-to-back picks, giving the Texans a playmaker on each side of the ball. The price to move up from #12 to #3 may have been a little pricey, but it wasn't egregious. I mean, we've seen the Texans make some outlandish trades before, and this one doesn't come close to some of the horrible trades we've seen the Texans make just in the last few years, never mind the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th they gave up in 2004 to move to 27th to draft Jason Babin. Ouch, was that horrible.
Already possibly the greatest draft in Texans history, they still had 10 picks remaining, but none in the 2nd round. There's no way they're making all 10 picks. And on Day 2 Caserio is on the phones looking to give some of those picks away. He strikes up a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles to move into the backend of the 2nd, from the front end of the 3rd. The Texans give Philly a 6th (#188) and a 7th (#230), just to move up 3 spots from #65 to #62. And with that they grab C/G Juice Scruggs from Penn State. A lot of the "experts" were all over the map on Scruggs. Most had a 3rd to 4th round grade on him and here the Texans are moving up into the 2nd to get him. He was the 4th rated center in the draft, but the 3rd rated C was still on the board and didn't end up being drafted until the end of the 3rd round. So this was kind of a questionable move by Caserio. Did he really have to give up 2 picks to move up 3 spots? If that's their guy then so be it, go get him if you're nervous he's going to get taken. This one may have been a reach though.
Scruggs didn't play all that great as a guard in Happy Valley and was marginally better at C. He doesn't give up ground in the pass game but he doesn't have much lateral quickness so defenders can get by him if they're not squared up. He's considered solid all around but doesn't really stand out at any one thing. So again, giving up 2 picks to move up 3 spots to get him, I really don't think was necessary.
The Texans next pick was slated at #73, but Caserio can't seem to stay in one place. He's on the phone again, this time with the Rams. The Texans send LA their 5th round pick (#161) that they got from the Brandin Cooks trade to the Cowboys, but the Texans get back the Rams 6th round pick at #191, all to move up 4 spots from #73 to #69. And with the 6th pick of the 3rd round, #69 overall, the Texans make their 3rd selection on the offensive side of the ball with University of Houston WR Nathaniel "Tank" Dell. Dell had 29 receiving TDs for the Coogs the last 2 seasons, including a nations best 17 last year. Dell's 1,398 yards also led the nation last year and his 109 receptions were 2nd most.
Most "experts" had Dell with a 2nd round grade, so I think the Texans get good value here even though there may have been better WR options on the board. Also, Dell, a tiny young man coming in at 5'8", 165 lbs, would likely play the slot for the Texans, a position expected to go to last year's 2nd round pick John Metchie, who missed his rookie season with leukemia. With his separation skills though, Dell could play on the outside. Dell should also be involved in the return game as well. He averaged 17 yards per punt return with the Cougars last season, which would have been top 5 in the country had he had enough returns to qualify. Dell also had a punt return TD. By the way, Tank Dell is the 1st player ever from the University of Houston to be drafted by the Texans.
On to Day 3 we go. Starting with the 4th round and beyond, you're basically selecting roster filler. These are guys who will likely, at least for now, start their careers playing special teams and playing backup roles. You're still trying to get good players, and occasionally you'll find diamonds in the rough that will not only become starters, but be good NFL players, but they are few and far between from this point on, particularly the deeper into the draft you go.
It's the 4th round though where I think Caserio let his foot off the gas pedal a little after such a great start, and kind of coasted through the rest of the draft. As the 4th round started, the Texans had the 2nd and 3rd picks (#104 & #105) to start day 3. They didn't keep either. They traded #104 to the Raiders in their first move back in the draft, to go to #109. Vegas also gave the Texans pick number #174 in the deal. Pick #105, that the Texans got back from Arizona in the Will Anderson deal, was traded to the Eagles for a 3rd round pick next year. So the Texans next pick was where the Raiders were at #109 where they take TCU edge rusher Dylan Horton, who had 18 sacks in his 5 year collegiate career with 10½ of those coming last year, and 4 of those coming in 1 game. Horton has some good moves in his repertoire and has a high motor, but he'll definitely need some coaching up. But, since this is about Caserio's execution of the draft and not so much about the player who hasn't taken an NFL snap, moving back and getting an extra pick is always a plus.
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That's where the moving back in the draft and getting extra picks ended. For their next selection, the LA Rams were answering their phone again and Caserio offers them pick #259, which was the last pick of the draft, aka Mr. Irrelevant, to move up 7 spots from #174 to #167, and the Rams said yes. To move up 7 spots in the 5th round and all it costs is the very last pick of the draft, wasn't a bad move at all. The Texans use that pick to go back to DeMeco's alma mater and get Alabama LB Henry To'oTo'o. To'oTo'o led the Tide in tackles in 2 years ago even though he's not considered a big hitter and lacks speed to keep runners from turning the corners. This pick kinda just feels like an Alabama reunion, and maybe they could have gotten a better prospect, but again, all it costs was the very last pick of the draft.
Next up was the Texans sitting still at #201 and taking C/G Jarrett Patterson out of Notre Dame. This is the 6th round now. Patterson started 34 games for the Irish at C from 2019-2021, with a foot injury holding him to 8 games in 2020. He started 13 games the following year. Last season, the Irish moved him to LG. There's a report saying that Patterson didn't allow a single sack for 1,609 straight pass blocking situations. Probably a backup G and C to start his career for the Texans, but might give Juice Scruggs some competition for a starting role.
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The Texans make a selection 4 picks later at #205 when they trade up with the Buffalo Bills. This one Caserio gave up pick #230, a pick that was actually a trade back with the Eagles, but they give it away along with a 6th round pick next year, to move up to #205 to take Iowa State WR Xavier Hutchinson. Man, Caserio really likes giving away picks to move up and get WRs. In his 1st draft he gave up 3 picks to get Nico Collins. Last year he gave up 3 picks to get John Metchie. And now 2 picks this year to move up and get Hutchinson, in the 6th round. At least Metchie and Collins were 2nd and 3rd rounders respectively. This is the 6th round! Anyhoo, Hutchinson has led the Big 12 for 3 straight seasons in receptions, and led the conference in yards this past season. Of Hutchinson's 6 TD catches last year only 1 came in conference play. It will be tough for him to make an impact with a Texans WR room that's getting pretty full. Not sure WR was the way to go here.
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And finally, we reach the end. Pick #248, the 12th from last pick in the draft. The pick the Texans got from the Eagles for giving them their spot at #191. And the Texans final draft pick in 2023 is Pittsburgh safety Brandon Hill. The Panthers played in the Sun Bowl this past December and Hill decided to opt out of that game so that he could prepare for the draft where ended up being taken in the 7th freaking round, 12th from the very last pick. Opting out of bowl games is becoming more of a thing for players that are expected to go high in the draft, where they fear an injury in a meaningless bowl game could hurt their draft status, thus costing them significant money. To be fair, Hill was a projected 5th rounder, but still, a backend of the draft guy opting out? What is the world coming to?
So that concludes the Texans 2023 draft.
I've only been grading these drafts for a handful of years so I really can't say what Texans draft would have received the best grade ever. Looking back though, and without really knowing the particulars of how the drafts were actually executed, it appears the 2006 draft probably would have gotten the best grade immediately after. But that's only from looking back and knowing what the players accomplished in the NFL. Hard to judge it without that bias. 2006 was the Vince Young/Reggie Bush draft where the local fan favorite was Young, but there was a big push from non-Texas supporters for Bush as well, and then the Texans ignored everyone, including Mattress Mac who pulled advertising from the Texans when they didn't draft Young, and instead went with Mario Williams. Knowing me I know I would have given the Texans points for doing that because I never thought Young was worth a 1st, never mind #1 overall, and I didn't think Bush could handle running inside the tackles in the NFL. So drafting Mario ended up being the right pick then.
That 2006 draft also included now HC DeMeco Ryans, taken in the 2nd round, 3rd round OTs Charles Spencer, who could have been special if not for teammate Ron Dayne running into the back of him and breaking his leg in an odd spot that basically ended his career, and Eric Winston, a solid 12 year NFL starting RT. That draft also included Owen Daniels, a 2 time Pro Bowl TE, who currently has the 3rd most receiving yards in Texans franchise history. So that was definitely their best draft ever after the fact. Whether I would have given it an "A" or not before any of them took a snap, I don't know.
Ironically, unlike the 2006 draft where they didn't go with what the fans were banging the table for, the 2023 draft seemed to be more geared towards pleasing the fans. With as bad as the team has been the last few years, and the chaos created by Bill O'Brien and Jack Easterby, the fanbase has turned to being apathetic at best, with a half empty NRG Stadium for the last couple of years. This off-season seems to be following a theme of re-igniting the fanbase. Hiring fan favorite DeMeco Ryans as HC, drafting a potential franchise QB, then making the big trade up to draft a pass rusher. Making personnel moves to appease fans usually ends in disaster. The thing is though, regardless of fan reaction, those were moves that needed to be made. So they make the fans happy, and address serious team needs at the same time.
In the end, this draft saw the Texans address QB, MUCH needed, with the #2 overall pick. They then paid a pretty hefty price to move from #12 to #3, but they end up getting the top rated player in the draft in Will Anderson, and address another MUCH needed position - pass rusher. Those 2 could change the franchise and that's worthy of an A+ on it's own. With their 3rd pick, and again, giving up assets to move up, they do address another need in the middle of the o-line and take a center. He wasn't the highest rated on the board, but ratings are often off with what actual teams have. Still, to give up 2 picks to move up 3 spots to get Scruggs seems to me like it was unnecessary. I believe there's a good chance he still would have been there 3 picks later seeing how no other C was taken for another 35 picks, but then you never know if somebody was thinking like the Texans and wanted Scruggs. With their 4th pick, the Texans again trade up but they get a later pick back so it really wasn't that big of a deal. They get UH Coog Tank Dell, who if he isn't contributing at WR right away, he definitely will be in the return game. But I do think he will be a factor on offense.
The Day 3 stuff is the hardest to judge. Nobody knows all of these players so it really is about execution in the draft. In one of only 2 move backs to get extra picks, the Texans add another pass rusher. Now the bulk of Horton's college sacks mostly came last year and 40% of those were in 1 game, but still. The Texans did give away pick #203 in the deal but got #174 back. #174 was part of what they used to move up 7 spots to get another Alabama alum, To'oTo'o. The Texans also had to part with pick #259 which was the very last pick of the draft. This one really did feel like a Roll Tide reunion party. They stay put at #201 and pick up another C for depth and hopefully competition. Patterson could actually be pretty solid. Then there's giving up multiple picks again to move up to get Hutchinson, a WR. And this one's a 6th rounder who gets added to a WR room that has gotten pretty crowded. No stand out WR1 per se, but a crowded room nonetheless. And then of course the last pick. 7th rounders rarely ever amount to much anyway, but this one thought he'd still better skip his school's bowl game to prepare for the draft where he was 12 picks away from not getting drafted at all.
What I have to remember here is that the emphasis there is on the front part of the draft, that same juice should not not put on the backend. Day 3 players are mostly roster filler and rarely make significant contributions, no matter how perfectly, or how bad, the draft is executed. And the front part of the Texans draft was knocked out of the park.
So my final grade of how GM Nick Caserio navigated and executed his 3rd NFL Draft with the Texans is:
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